It’s becoming apparent even to the most naive pacifist that Russia is not through with Ukraine. First it was Crimea and now the eastern section of the Ukraine is in Moscow’s sights. Some of my academic colleagues have been mocking my analysis of the Ukrainian crisis since it began with Viktor Yanukovych leaving office. ‘Russia is going to move,’ I said. They told me I was crazy and Russia would ‘never invade Ukraine for fear of it starting World War III.’ In response I laid out the course I believed that the crisis would take. For reference, look back on the last five or six posts. As the crisis in the Ukraine has played out, the criticism from my colleagues has diminished to the point of it being a whisper at current. I called it correctly from Day One; Russia is not looking to invade and occupy the Ukraine. Russia is looking to slice off the regions with pro-Russian majorities and create a new nation-state that is pro-Russia and anti-West.
Not to sound like an arrogant jerk, but I hate being right about things like this.
The next stage of Russia’s partition plan is underway. ‘Spontaneous’ pro-Russian demonstrations are breaking out in the eastern Ukraine. Pro-Russian citizens have begun to seize government buildings in Donetsk. A Russian speaking gentleman even declared the beginning of the ‘Donetsk People’s Republic’ to the crowd that seized a regional government building in Donetsk. Sound familiar?
Tensions are starting to rise in the eastern Ukraine now. More posts are coming today and this week.