If I were a gambling man I’d say there is probably a 60% chance of North Korea testing a long range missile over the next three days. After all, it is inaugural weekend here in the United States and our new president has already called out Kim Jong Un, a leader with a very short temper and frail ego. After Un’s announcement that North Korea was close to testing an ICBM, President-elect Donald Trump tweeted that it “won’t happen.” Now, on the eve of the inauguration it’s safe to assume Un will at least try to make Trump eat his words. Over the past 36 hours a number of reports have materialized that suggest North Korea is making preparations for a test firing. Some experts have suggested publicly that the claim about an ICBM is credible given the progress the nation has made on the nuclear front in recent years.
I am not going to agree with or contest their conclusions, however, I will simply state that mine are somewhat different.
A potential North Korean test only serves to highlight the fact that the world is entering a new geo-political era of sorts. Donald Trump’s foreign policy will be markedly different from Barak Obama’s. We’ve seen glimmers of this since November 8th but tomorrow after Trump takes the oath of office it becomes real.