Qatar’s rejection of the demands issued by Saudi Arabia and its allies last week was widely expected and surprised few observers. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s vocal support of the Qatari decision was not unforeseen either. However, the increasing role Turkey is taking in this crisis continues to raise eyebrows and questions. Erdogan labeled the ultimatum as being contrary to international law. The demand for Qatar to remove Turkish military personnel from its territory drew particular ire from Erdogan. He called the demand ‘disrespectful’ and stated that Turkey did not require permission to live up to its defense cooperation commitments.
Qatar and Turkey’s relationship was growing closer long before this crisis broke out at the beginning of the month. Both nations have similar ideologies and stances on regional issues. Neither considers the Muslim Brotherhood to be a terrorist organization. The military coup that toppled Mohammed Morsi in Egypt was strongly condemned by both Ankara and Doha, and the two nations share the same approach towards Iran. Following the failed coup in Turkey last year, Qatar’s emir was the first international leader to come out publicly in support of Erdogan. With Turkey’s increasing isolation on the international front, Qatar is considered a key ally.
So, the question is: how will Turkey’s involvement in this crisis play out? Although it is standing firmly beside Qatar, Erdogan does not want his nation to be regarded as anti-Saudi Arabia. Despite this hope, Riyadh’s demand that Turkish troops leave Qatar makes it clear the Saudis do not view Turkey as a positive influence in the region. Erdogan’s outspoken rhetoric, and bold actions since the crisis began has made the Saudi-led coalition suspicious of Turkey’s true intentions. Many diplomats feel its ultimate goal is to acquire permanent influence in regional matters, and that is an unappetizing prospect given Turkey’s stance on the Muslim Brotherhood, as well as its perceived pro-Iran policies.
A major concern is what will happen if the current crisis leads to a coup in Doha, or a military confrontation. Will Turkey support Qatar militarily against Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, and Egypt? If Ankara decides to do it, what will the consequences be for Turkey’s relationship with the United States and NATO? Erdogan would be wise to consider these points as he attempts to embed himself and his nation deeper in this crisis.