The past weekend’s violence on Venezuela’s borders with Colombia, and Brazil has prompted some analysts, and journalists to openly wonder if the time is coming for US military intervention in Venezuela. At first glance, this does appear to be a fair question to ask given the positions the Trump administration has taken on the Venezuelan crisis, and the Maduro regime. Venezuela is approaching the status of being a ‘Failed State.’ The economy is in ruins, citizens are fleeing the country by the tens of thousands, and just beneath the surface a civil war is brewing. As the pressure on Caracas rises, Maduro’s actions are becoming more violent, and less predictable. Citizens who openly defy him and attempt to bring relief supplies into the country are being targeted by paramilitary squads. This led to the bloodshed and violence over the weekend.
The US has a history of using the ‘Failed State’ argument to justify intervening militarily in the affairs of nation-states that were, for lack of a better term, about to go down the tubes and potentially take its neighbors down with them. Libya is the best recent example. The US spearheaded diplomatic efforts aimed at gaining UN authorization for NATO to intervene militarily in the First Libyan Civil War in 2011. The US also spearheaded the NATO military effort that came shortly afterward. President Obama took action to save the lives of innocent protesters, and other Libyan civilians who were being targeted by Libyan dictator Muammar al-Qaddafi. Along with terrorizing his own people, he also posed a threat to the progress of Arab Spring, which was sweeping away authoritarian regimes in the region at the time.
Obama’s intervention helped rip Qadaffi from power and for a short time Libya settled down. However, Qaddafi’s ouster eventually created a power vacuum in Libya that touched off a second, even deadlier civil war, and also led to the waves of Libyan refugees swamping Southern Europe.
Libya in 2011, and Venezuela of the present day share a number of similarities. Both fit the definition of a Failed State. Oil was unable to save the Qaddafi government from ruin, and it doesn’t seem to be of much help to Maduro’s regime either. Venezuela is fast becoming the pariah of South America, much in the same way Libya was treated by most of North Africa and the Middle East.
Despite these common traits, Venezuela is not Libya. Maduro doesn’t pose a threat -real or perceived- to the United States and the Western world. Venezuela is not being used as a base of operations by international terrorist groups. The Venezuelan military, while having a handful of advanced US and Russian aircraft and weapons in its inventory, is not a force capable of aggression beyond its borders. The humanitarian crisis that Maduro’s actions have created are a tragedy, but not strong enough to act as the platform for military intervention by the US, and other Western powers.
If change is going to come to Venezuela, it will have to come from within. The US, most of South America, and Europe are content with limiting their responses to recognizing Juan Guaido as the legitimate president of Venezuela, donating relief supplies to Venezuela’s impoverished citizens, and imposing economic sanctions on Maduro’s government. Unless something dramatic happens, this will not change.