Iran Update: 26 June, 2019

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Apologies for being radio silent since late last week, but sometimes life and work get in the way unfortunately. I’ll start off with a brief update on Iran and then delve into more detailed postings tomorrow and into the weekend.

Tomorrow, Iran is expected to announce that the size of its uranium stockpiles have exceeded the limits set by the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) which is more commonly known as the Iran Nuclear Deal. The uranium limitation level is considered to be a key component of the deal. A red line which, if crossed, could nix the entire nuclear deal. The root purpose of the deal has always been to limit the size and scope of Iran’s nuclear program and prevent Tehran from acquiring nuclear weapons.

Once Iran makes the announcement and takes this step it places the remaining members of the JCPOA in a difficult position. Iran has given the European nations in the deal until 7 July to offer a better nuclear deal, or relief from the US economic sanctions now in place, it will begin enriching its uranium to weapons-grade levels. This is the real danger at the moment. Thus far, every Iranian move has been calculated to help bring about the end of the economic sanctions now strangling its economy. Tehran has miscalculated more than once, as is evident by fact that the sanctions not only remain in place, but by the reality that the Trump administration is piling on additional sanctions.

Iran’s brinkmanship strategy is failing and its causing the leadership in Tehran to become more desperate. It is in situations like this where miscalculations become more probable, and it goes without saying that an Iranian miscalculation at this point could have disastrous consequences.

We will have to see what materializes tomorrow.

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