With forces of the Libyan National Army (LNA) under the command of Khalifa Haftar preparing for a decisive assault on Tripoli the Tunisian government has grown wary of the situation to its east. Fearful of a spillover of fighting onto its soil, the government announced a mobilization of the nation’s military and security forces. These forces will deploy to Tunisia’s southeastern border with Libya in the coming days. As the prospect of fighting looms around Tripoli, the Tunisian move comes as no surprise. Along with preventing violence from spilling over, Tunisia’s military and security forces are also preparing for the anticipated surge of refugee families into their country.
On Thursday Haftar announced the start of a final LNA offensive aimed at capturing Tripoli and deposing the Government of National Accord (GNA). “Zero hour has come for the broad and total assault expected by every free and honest Libyan,” Haftar said in a speech on Thursday. It is yet uncertain if the planned offensive has commenced yet or not. Judging from government reports, and dispatches and tweets from journalists on the ground there the fighting has not yet begun in earnest. That could change at any time though.
Tunisia is not the only nation-state in the Mediterranean eyeing events in Libya closely. The other day we spoke about Turkey and the stake Ankara has in the continued survival of the GNA. Greece has been outspoken in its opposition to the controversial agreement between Turkey and Libya over maritime boundaries. Since its signing on 28 November, the US, Egypt, Russia, Israel, and the European Union have come out against the agreement too. As Athens moves to drum up more diplomatic support from nations in the Persian Gulf area, it is also reinforcing Greek military forces on Crete.
If Haftar’s LNA does seize control of Tripoli and the GNA collapses, the deal will be dead in the water. This reality is understood by the Turkish government, and at least partly responsible for Turkey’s recent offer of military intervention to the GNA.