27 March, 2021 Update: Iran-China, Myanmar, Suez Canal

It’s becoming an active weekend around the world with hotspots flaring and some geopolitical and economic situations requiring close attention. We’ll start off in Tehran, then move on to Myanmar and wrap up in the Suez Canal.

Iran and China officially signed the long-anticipated 25-year strategic cooperation agreement on Saturday. The Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, or CSP as it is referred to, has been discussed for years and speculation has been rampant. The agreement is centered on economic activity, according to a wide variety of third-party sources and analysts. However, there’s reason to suspect that military and intelligence cooperation also makes up a sizeable portion of the agreement. Neither country has revealed any concrete details on the agreement, leaving the terms a mystery to practically everyone outside of government circles in Tehran and Beijing. The confidentiality surrounding the CSP will no doubt only fuel further conjecture. Yet the one fact that cannot be disputed is that the CSP will bring a new era of increased Chinese influence in the Persian Gulf region. As well as perhaps emboldening Iran at a time when its relationship with the United States continues to decline.

Saturday has been a bloody day in Myanmar. Troops and police have reportedly killed 114 protesters around the country as government suppression of the protests has escalated to a new level. The heavy hand comes on Armed Forces Day, an annual holiday celebrated in Myanmar. Apparently, the military’s preoccupation with the protests in the cities has motivated the Karen National Union (No Joke, the Karens have organized 😊) to seize a military base in the Kayin state. The KNU has rejected the 1 February military coup. “Their bullying and killing of unarmed civilians across Myanmar is against our revolutionary force’s beliefs. We cannot accept inhumane acts, not only in Kayin state, but also in other areas,” Saw Htoo Ka Shaw, a KNU official said in a statement earlier today.

The MV Ever Given remains aground in the Suez Canal. Efforts continue to get the large container ship dislodged from its present position. On Friday evening, Egyptian officials expressed some hope after the ship’s rudder was freed. However, concern is growing over the economic fallout if the Ever Given remains unmoved for an extended period of time. Shipping analysts already estimate that the gridlock of container ships and oil tankers at either end of the canal has held up $10 billion in trade daily. It will simply be a matter of time before this situation has long term effects on economies and markets across the world. There is no firm timetable on when the Suez will be reopened to traffic. The one certainty hanging over the situation is that with the majority of global retail trade moving via sea, the effects will also soon be felt by shoppers in practically every country.

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