Ukraine Update 8 April, 2021: The Naval Aspect

The burgeoning crisis in eastern Ukraine will not be restricted to the air and land should Russia’s intentions prove hostile and the balloon goes up. A potential conflict will also include a sea element as well. Today, the Russian government announced its intention to move over 10 naval vessels from the Caspian Sea to the Black Sea ostensibly to take part in upcoming military exercises. The vessels will include landing craft and support ships, according to Russian media reports. No mention was made regarding the inclusion of major warships. However, given that the Russian Black Sea Fleet is nearby, Russia has a host of frigates, destroyers, submarines and other warships already in close proximity. This gives Russia additional options both operationally and in the political realm.

According to media reports, as well as personal sources, the US is considering sending warships to the Black Sea too, as a show of support for Ukraine. Deploying US Navy vessels to the Black Sea will also serve as a warning to Moscow that the US is closely monitoring the buildup of Russian forces in the region. Moving warships into the Black Sea area requires some preparation. Under the terms of the Montreaux Convention, Turkey has control of the Bosphorus and Dardanelles connecting the Aegean Sea to the Black Sea. The US will have to give Turkey 14 days notice of its intent to send warships through the passages and into the Black Sea.

Since Russia’s annexation of Crimea, surface elements of the US Sixth Fleet, as well as surface ships from various NATO allies, have operated in the Black Sea on a regular basis. There has been no indication of what size naval force the US might be considering, but given how steady the crisis between Russia and Ukraine seems to be moving, it is safe to assume that it would include multiple warships with various capabilities and weapons systems onboard.

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