Here we go again. Internal conditions in North Korea seem to be deteriorating at an accelerating pace. Every day the news reports become more disquieting; Food shortages, veiled warnings of a pandemic-related ‘Great Crisis’ by Kim Jong Un and an increasing number of foreign diplomats leaving Pyongyang every week. The picture being painted inspires neither confidence or hope about the North Korean government’s ability to stabilize conditions before it is too late. Now, predictions of an imminent North Korean collapse are making headway online….again.
We’ve been down this road before. The domestic situation in North Korea takes a turn for the worse, or Kim disappears from public view for an extended period. The media runs with it from there and starts loudly warning of a coming North Korean collapse. After a week or two, the hype disappears and North Korea muddles through yet another crisis that was supposed to sink it once and for all.
This time around, the situation in the North does appear to be more critical than it has in the past. However, looks can be deceiving. Either way, now is a good time to look at the potential scenarios that could emerge from a North Korean collapse. Unfortunately, doing so within the span of a 300-400 word entries is next to impossible. So, later on in the week I will post the first in a series of entries examining how a North Korean collapse might look in the near future. Right now, I’m thinking about 3-4 entries spread out over the next 5 weeks or so. Barring the appearance of a major crisis or pop-up conflict, of course. 😊